Analysis of China's starch processing market in the second half of 2020
In 2020, the overall development trend of my country's potato starch market will slow down. Affected by the 19-year epidemic, this year's supply of potato raw materials in my country's major potato raw material production areas has decreased, purchase prices have been high, starch prices have continued to rise, and starch manufacturers have faced greater pressure on profitability. At present, domestic prices of corn starch and tapioca starch are stable, and the price of potato starch is rising significantly.
1. The following is an analysis of the price trend of several starches
1. Tapioca starch
At present, the domestic cassava starch market is performing smoothly. The goods continue to arrive and the supply is sufficient. The downstream demand has not yet improved. Purchasing on demand, the delivery of goods is still slow, and the price is stable. The high-end Thai flour in Qingdao Port is reported at 3300-3650 yuan/ton including tax, and the Vietnamese flour is reported at 3150-3420 yuan/ton including tax. The arrival of starch in the border trade market is relatively stable, and the delivery has improved slightly. The current mainstream quotations are 2980-3320 yuan/ton. Domestic flour manufacturers mainly sell inventory, among which low-grade products are reported at 3450-3550 yuan/ton, ordinary products are reported at 3600-3750 yuan/ton, and high-quality products are reported at 3800-3950 yuan/ton.
2. Corn starch
This week, the domestic corn starch market price was stable but weak, and the downstream market was not selling well at high prices. Insufficient quantity in the corn market, some deep-processing companies have raised prices to promote revenue, and the high raw material costs have restricted the room for starch prices to fall. The enthusiasm for picking up goods before the National Day holiday is high, and the supply of goods in some areas is still tight. On the whole, the spot price of corn starch has a limited adjustment range, and the main enterprises mainly supply stable supply. The average price of corn starch in the spot market in the week before the National Day holiday was 2756.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.28 yuan/ton compared with the previous average price, a decrease of 0.52%.
3. Potato starch
The price of potato starch has risen significantly this week, labor costs have risen significantly, manufacturers' production costs have increased, and prices have increased slightly. Coupled with the fact that downstream buyers are buying up and not buying down, downstream traders have begun to take goods after the price has risen. However, the production volume in the northwest and northeast regions is currently low, and the focus of downstream procurement has shifted to North China. In the early stage, the inventory pressure of manufacturers eased and prices continued to rise. At present, the new season first-grade powder price in North China refers to 6500-6600 yuan/ton, the market price of high-grade powder refers to 6700-6800 yuan/ton, and the market price of first-grade powder from manufacturers in Northeast China is 6500-6600 yuan/ton. The price refers to 6700-6800 yuan/ton, the market price of first-class powder in Northwest China refers to 6700-6800 yuan/ton, and the market price of high-grade powder refers to 6900-7000/ton. The operating rate in North China has reached its peak. The supply of raw materials during the initial rainfall in the Northeast has been unstable, and the operating rate has been slow year-on-year. The operating rate in the Northwest has gradually increased, and mass production will begin after the holiday.
2. Demand for potato starch processing
At present, most potato starch manufacturers in North China and Northeast China have finished their production, and the production of manufacturers in Northwest China is at a peak. The overall production season is already over half. It is expected that the production of manufacturers in Northwest China will continue until mid-to-early November. Due to the lower supply of raw materials in various production areas this year, the production cycle is lower than the same period in previous years, shortening by about 15 days. According to Zhuochuang's research data, the output of North China and Northeast China in the autumn and winter seasons decreased by 30%-35% compared with 2018, and the output of Northeast China has decreased more. At the same time, due to the low supply of raw materials, manufacturers' production costs remain high and the profitability pressure is greater.
Judging from the profit analysis chart of potato starch manufacturers in North China, the price of raw materials has continued to rise since the beginning of the season this year. The average purchase price of raw materials in North China is about 750 yuan/ton. Potatoes are growing well this year, and the production rate is better than previous years and maintained at 1/7.8-1/8. Due to the high purchase prices, the cost of raw materials is still higher than the same period in previous years. In addition, although the price of starch tends to be high, the increase is not as high as the increase in costs. The profit margin of production remains at 100-200 yuan/ton, and the profit pressure is relatively high.